But what would happen if, over the next five years, migrant workers gradually left the country? Analyzing four scenarios—a decrease of 10%, 25%, 50%, and 75%—helps us understand the scale of the impact of migrants on the Polish economy, especially in the context of an aging population and a shrinking working-age workforce.
A 10% reduction over five years would be relatively moderate, but its effects would still be noticeable in certain sectors. Industries already experiencing labor shortages—transport, warehousing, and construction—would face challenges in maintaining production and meeting deadlines.
The overall economic impact would be limited but measurable: GDP growth could decline by roughly 0.2–0.3 percentage points annually, and some companies would need to increase wages to retain their current workforce.
At the same time, the pressure on the domestic labor market would be moderate—Polish workers might partially fill vacancies, but not fully compensate for the shortfall.
A 25% decline would be more serious. Losing one-quarter of foreign workers would first affect sectors with the highest share of migrant employees—construction, manufacturing, and transport. Companies might have to reduce orders, slow production, or temporarily suspend some projects.
Economically, this could slow GDP growth by 0.5–0.7 percentage points per year. Service sectors such as healthcare, logistics, and hospitality, which rely heavily on migrants for less attractive positions, would also be affected.
Given Poland’s aging population, the domestic workforce would not be able to fully replace the missing labor. Polish employees could fill some gaps, but the pace and flexibility of the labor market would be insufficient to offset losses across the economy.
Losing half of the foreign workforce would be critical. A 50% reduction would immediately affect industrial production, construction, logistics, and seasonal services. Many employers would be unable to maintain previous levels of activity—some would have to scale back production or halt foreign contracts.
At the macroeconomic level, GDP could decline by 1–1.5 percentage points annually. Labor markets in sectors with low domestic participation would face severe recruitment challenges, and wage pressures would rise significantly—salaries could increase faster than productivity, leading to higher costs and potential inflation.
In the long term, a 50% reduction highlights a structural problem: Poland does not have enough working-age people to sustain economic growth and carry out planned investments without foreign labor.
A 75% reduction is an extreme scenario, resulting in a serious labor market crisis and economic slowdown. Most companies in sectors heavily reliant on migrant labor would have to drastically reduce operations or even suspend activities entirely.
The macroeconomic effect would be severe: GDP could fall by 2–3 percentage points annually, and public debt could rise due to reduced tax revenue. Sectors such as construction, transport, warehousing, and healthcare would immediately experience labor shortages.
Given Poland’s demographic situation—an aging population and a declining working-age population—there would be no possibility of quickly replacing lost workers with domestic labor. This would lead to delays in infrastructure projects, a decline in exports, and difficulties for companies to maintain operations.
The analysis of migrant outflow scenarios clearly shows that foreign workers are integral to Poland’s economy. Even a moderate reduction of 10–25% would create noticeable challenges in sectors most dependent on migrant labor.
Scenarios involving a 50% or 75% outflow illustrate that the absence of migrants would lead to a serious economic crisis, with a risk of GDP slowdown, wage pressure, and disruption of key projects.
Given Poland’s aging population and shrinking working-age labor force, migrants are not merely a supplement—they form a foundation of the labor market. Their presence allows the economy to function efficiently, supports growth, and ensures continuity in strategic sectors.
